Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e5b…1de5 crypto 427 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+6%) realized +$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%285W / 142L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$55
14 days+$41
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +4.5% -5.4% 49% 39% -20.4%
≤30d 427 +8.9% -1.4% 67% 41% -4.9%
≤90d 427 +8.9% -1.4% 67% 41% -4.9%
all 427 +8.9% -1.4% 67% 41% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 41% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 27% -14.0%
15% -19.5% 20% -22.3%
20% -27.4% 16% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses285 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 427
History coverage27d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$13 +121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$9 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$42 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$4 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$9 +420%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$6 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$6 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$9 +420%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$10 +484%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $84 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $41 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 889 history records