Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e5c…0cae crypto 58 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$15
other 27% +$19
crypto 11% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -24.2% -31.4% 39% 34% -1.1%
≤30d 58 -18.0% -25.9% 45% 34% +5.3%
≤90d 58 -18.0% -25.9% 45% 34% +5.3%
all 58 -18.0% -25.9% 45% 34% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 34% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 31% -4.8%
15% -39.4% 29% -14.0%
20% -45.4% 28% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $182 −$161 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $145 +$33 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $136 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$15 +89%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $107 +$18 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $118 +$14 +12%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 +$10 +41%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Pla Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +122%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $71 +$54 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $47 +$50 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 2¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 8¢ $19 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $177 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $178 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $145 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $136 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 50¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 45¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 42¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $125 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 84¢ $107 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 20¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 26¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 54¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 4d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Chicago Sky 34¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records