Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3e5e…b4af sports 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,100 (-6%) realized −$10,410 · open +$310
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate81%201W / 47L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days−$1,466
14 days−$10,502
30 days−$11,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$11,534
other 40% +$945
politics 5% +$173
crypto 2% +$220
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -35.7% -41.8% 47% 33% -34.9%
≤30d 42 -18.7% -26.5% 64% 50% -48.3%
≤90d 83 -5.9% -14.9% 80% 43% -22.9%
all 248 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 39% -15.5%
10% -20.9% 17% -23.6%
15% -28.5% 6% -31.0%
20% -35.5% 1% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$427 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$5,462
Realized−$10,410
Unrealized+$310
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses201 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions9
Markets (closed)248 / 257
History coverage626d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $896 $1,199 +$303 (+34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $450 $926 +$476 (+106%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $933 $736 −$197 (-21%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 94¢ 96¢ $700 $711 +$11 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $547 $578 +$31 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $593 $434 −$159 (-27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $477 $321 −$156 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $277 $314 +$37 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $279 $244 −$35 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $402 +$58 +14%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $501 +$42 +8%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $201 +$58 +29%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $600 +$51 +8%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $256 +$63 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $636 −$382 -60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $421 +$216 +51%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,103 −$611 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$23 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 18 $9,483 −$9,483 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 18 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,002 +$73 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 +$52 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1,001 +$31 +3%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,004 +$172 +17%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $957 +$192 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $808 +$148 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $433 −$313 -72%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $395 +$38 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $301 +$32 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $301 +$37 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $262 +$63 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $101 −$57 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $115 +$41 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $153 +$9 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $501 −$485 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $501 +$37 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $9,395 +$83 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong May 24 $1,354 +$47 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $1,024 +$330 +32%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $400 +$16 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $200 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $501 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 87¢ $402 9h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 92¢ $501 13h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 77¢ $201 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $600 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $319 6d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 79¢ $256 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $254 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 53¢ $636 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 65¢ $421 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $201 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,002 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $1,001 9d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $101 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 10d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $1,149 10d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 83¢ $957 10d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $957 10d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 84¢ $808 10d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 69¢ $505 10d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,462.24 · official $5,462.24 (match) · 635 history records