Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e63…021d crypto 62 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-11%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%35W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$47
other 20% −$10
sports 3% −$15
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.5% -18.1% 57% 48% -22.0%
≤30d 61 -9.5% -18.1% 57% 48% -22.0%
≤90d 61 -9.5% -18.1% 57% 48% -22.0%
all 61 -9.5% -18.1% 57% 48% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 48% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 31% -29.5%
15% -33.1% 26% -36.3%
20% -39.7% 18% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses35 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$29 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$13 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$32 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.73 · official $4.73 (match) · 170 history records