Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e66…9d11 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$292 (-15%) realized −$325 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$202
14 days−$316
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$186
sports 12% −$119
crypto 2% +$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -41.7% -47.3% 39% 39% -29.2%
≤30d 33 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 39% -31.8%
≤90d 33 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 39% -31.8%
all 33 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 39% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 39% -31.8%
10% -50.1% 30% -38.3%
15% -54.9% 30% -44.3%
20% -59.3% 18% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$35 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage26d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $89 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $90 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 14h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 36h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.87 · official $625.87 (match) · 52 history records