Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e66…38b0 politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$310 (-8%) realized −$310 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$2
sports 25% −$289
other 24% −$3
world 5% −$15
culture 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -50.3% -55.0% 0% 0% -32.3%
all 20 -15.3% -23.3% 15% 0% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 0% -16.8%
10% -30.7% 0% -24.8%
15% -37.4% 0% -32.1%
20% -43.5% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage132d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Devils vs. Red Wings Apr 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $296 −$2 -0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Mar 16 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 05 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $297 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $297 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Feb 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $36 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $84 17d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $84 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $16 57d
Devils vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 57¢ $109 75d
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $295 84d
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $296 87d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 55¢ $179 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $38 99d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? SELL No 98¢ $98 99d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $99 101d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $99 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $27 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $12 101d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 102d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $196 102d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $196 104d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $97 104d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $98 105d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $95 105d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $98 105d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $98 107d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $99 107d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $95 107d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $98 108d
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 99¢ $197 108d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $99 110d
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 98¢ $197 110d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $273 111d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $275 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 65 history records