Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e68…88da
sports · 34 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$1 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 10 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 41¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Luciano Darderi 72¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? No 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? No 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? Yes 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu Yibing Wu 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals 96¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Marco Trungelliti 79¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys Antonia Ruzic 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? No 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $6 +$3 +52%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 +$1 +67%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $1 $0 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $1 $0 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $1 $0 +17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $1 $0 +29%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% +$5
sports 39% −$4
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $5 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 28h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 28h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $6 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 29h
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Marco Trungelliti 79¢ $1 33h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 96¢ $1 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 2d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $1 6d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 72¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $1 14d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $1 14d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys BUY Antonia Ruzic 15¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 21¢ $1 14d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 90¢ $1 15d
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 15d
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 11¢ $1 15d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 11¢ $1 15d
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 16¢ $1 15d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 15d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +13.5%
≤30d 24 -40.6% -46.2% 42% 33% -8.5%
≤90d 24 -40.6% -46.2% 42% 33% -8.5%
all 24 -40.6% -46.2% 42% 33% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 33% -8.5%
10% -51.4% 21% -17.2%
15% -56.1% 17% -25.2%
20% -60.4% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.18 · official $27.18 (match) · 48 history records