Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3E 0x3e68…fcb9 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$220 (+21%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$197
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$183
other 27% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +38.8% +25.6% 68% 63% +7.6%
≤30d 21 +48.1% +34.0% 71% 67% +9.6%
≤90d 21 +48.1% +34.0% 71% 67% +9.6%
all 21 +48.1% +34.0% 71% 67% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 67% +9.6%
10% +21.2% 57% -0.8%
15% +9.5% 52% -10.4%
20% -1.3% 33% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$32 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $55 +$25 +45%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $78 +$29 +37%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $27 +$8 +30%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 +$2 +14%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $79 −$15 -19%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $78 −$15 -19%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$30 +38%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 +$21 +108%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $79 −$77 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $115 +$17 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $158 +$249 +158%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +155%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$1 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $79 −$20 -25%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $79 −$9 -12%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 +$1 +192%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$24 +204%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 25¢ $14 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 25¢ $6 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 27¢ $30 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 27¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 28¢ $13 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 28¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 28¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 28¢ $1 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 28¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 28¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 30¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 18¢ $55 1h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 44h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $50 44h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $50 44h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $78 44h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland $1 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland $10 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland $1 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland $23 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland $27 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 63¢ $19 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 54¢ $16 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 17¢ $64 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 38¢ $0 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 38¢ $63 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 20¢ $79 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 46¢ $78 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 16¢ $1 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records