Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e69…7a30 sports 1593 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,363 (-4%) realized −$3,358 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%1406W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$243
14 days−$289
30 days−$691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,095
other 5% −$382
crypto 0% −$23
world 0% +$1
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 3% -10.9%
≤30d 1065 -1.3% -10.7% 90% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 1587 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 6% -11.1%
all 1587 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 6% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 1% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$3,358
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1406 / 181
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1587 / 1593
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 97¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 96¢ 98¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 96¢ 84¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-13%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 94¢ 96¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina 96¢ 97¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Patrick Schoen 97¢ 93¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Carolina Kuhl Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $80 +$2 +3%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $80 +$4 +4%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $116 +$5 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $123 −$78 -63%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $80 +$2 +3%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $80 +$3 +4%
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb Jun 17 $80 +$3 +3%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $80 +$3 +4%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $89 +$3 +3%
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 17 $71 +$2 +2%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $117 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $119 +$4 +3%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $114 +$1 +1%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$2 +3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $92 +$3 +4%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $152 +$3 +2%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $83 +$2 +3%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 17 $150 +$5 +4%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $72 +$2 +3%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 17 $81 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $89 +$3 +4%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $92 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 +$2 +3%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $78 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $110 +$4 +4%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $91 +$6 +6%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $80 +$2 +2%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $80 +$2 +3%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $80 +$2 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Liv Boulard Jun 16 $134 +$3 +2%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $82 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 94¢ $60 1m
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz SELL Ipek Oz 100¢ $63 5m
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Carolina Kuhl SELL Aran Teixido Garcia 100¢ $61 5m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun SELL Mili Poljicak 100¢ $61 5m
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 97¢ $52 13m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 96¢ $80 15m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 96¢ $60 25m
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 96¢ $80 33m
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz BUY Ipek Oz 95¢ $60 46m
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon SELL Grigor Dimitrov 100¢ $83 48m
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Carolina Kuhl BUY Aran Teixido Garcia 98¢ $60 49m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Mili Poljicak 98¢ $60 55m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 97¢ $80 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 95¢ $80 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 93¢ $9 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 96¢ $116 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 31¢ $36 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku SELL Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $82 1h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 100¢ $83 1h
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb SELL Liel Marlies Rothensteiner 100¢ $83 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 97¢ $80 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $83 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $92 2h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 96¢ $80 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 96¢ $80 2h
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb BUY Liel Marlies Rothensteiner 96¢ $80 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 97¢ $89 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 96¢ $114 2h
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 98¢ $71 3h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $120 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.97 · official $448.38 (match) · 3500 history records