Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e69…8c8a
other · 51 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage133d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 7 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Brex IPO before 2027? No 92¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 27? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? Apr 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 29? Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 March 23-29? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 26? Mar 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 26? Mar 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5? Mar 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 6? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 5? Mar 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 25? Mar 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Feb 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February Feb 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 19 $16 $0 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 11 $22 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Callaita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 10 $23 $0 +0%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Feb 08 $10 $0 -3%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislat Feb 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 7? Feb 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Feb 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 07 $14 $0 -2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Feb 06 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 3 Feb 06 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on February 1? Feb 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 01 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$3
crypto 33% −$1
world 5% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY No 99¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 28d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 46d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $20 62d
Will Solana reach $100 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29? BUY No 99¢ $5 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 75d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 26? BUY No 99¢ $2 78d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 26? BUY No 99¢ $1 78d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 93d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $17 100d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $10 100d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5? BUY No 99¢ $5 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 100d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $10 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 -19.6% -27.2% 80% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -5.2% -14.3% 94% 0% -9.5%
all 44 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -9.3%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.07 · official $28.07 (match) · 96 history records