Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e6a…7931 crypto 709 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$204 (-5%) realized −$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%351W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$78
14 days−$249
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -8.1% -16.9% 40% 40% -14.9%
≤30d 709 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 49% -15.6%
≤90d 709 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 49% -15.6%
all 709 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 49% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 49% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 48% -23.7%
15% -31.0% 40% -31.1%
20% -37.7% 30% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses351 / 358
Open positions0
Markets (closed)709 / 709
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 709 Trades
no open positions (352 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1086 history records