Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

3E 0x3e73…9aaa sports 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 234d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$30 (+14%) realized +$28 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown81%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$0

7 days+$37

14 days+$37

30 days+$37

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)-4.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+24.2%	+12.4%	82%	82%	+25.5%
≤30d	11	+24.2%	+12.4%	82%	82%	+25.5%
≤90d	11	+24.2%	+12.4%	82%	82%	+25.5%
all	19	+5.6%	-4.5%	68%	68%	+2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.5%	68%	+2.2%
10%	-13.6%	53%	-7.5%
15%	-22.0%	42%	-16.5%
20%	-29.6%	26%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late +25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized+$28

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage234d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown81%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$11	$13	+$2 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$7	+$3	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$7	+$3	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$20	+$19	+93%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$8	+$2	+26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$8	+$2	+31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$6	+$4	+67%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5	+$5	+97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$7	+$3	+42%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)	Jun 11	$20	+$4	+21%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?	Oct 26	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?	Oct 26	$1	−$1	-100%
Dern vs. Jandiroba	Oct 26	$2	+$1	+72%
Volkov vs. Almeida	Oct 26	$2	+$3	+127%
Barnett vs. Abdelwahab	Oct 26	$20	+$4	+22%
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov	Oct 26	$60	+$11	+18%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov	Oct 24	$2	−$2	-100%
Raposo vs. Maksum	Oct 24	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$6	44h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	22¢	$2	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	59¢	$6	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Bo Nickal	76¢	$8	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Sean OMalley	79¢	$8	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$12	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$7	6d
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)	BUY Spurs	82¢	$20	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	51¢	$20	6d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	233d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	233d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	235d
Dern vs. Jandiroba	BUY Dern	58¢	$2	235d
Volkov vs. Almeida	BUY Volkov	44¢	$2	235d
Rakic vs. Murzakanov	BUY Rakic	50¢	$2	235d
Raposo vs. Maksum	BUY Maksum	82¢	$20	235d
Barnett vs. Abdelwahab	BUY Abdelwahab	82¢	$20	235d
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov	BUY Nurmagomedov	85¢	$60	235d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.91 · official $12.91 (match) · 38 history records