Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e74…ec81 other 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,972 (-10%) realized −$1,960 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%78W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,068
7 days+$50
14 days−$741
30 days−$2,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$2,006
sports 22% +$123
crypto 14% −$503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -5.6% -14.6% 29% 28% -8.9%
≤30d 283 -10.6% -19.1% 28% 27% -20.7%
≤90d 283 -10.6% -19.1% 28% 27% -20.7%
all 283 -10.6% -19.1% 28% 27% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 27% -20.7%
10% -26.8% 27% -28.3%
15% -33.9% 26% -35.2%
20% -40.4% 24% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$56 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized−$1,960
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses78 / 205
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions5
Markets (closed)283 / 288
History coverage27d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 46¢ 45¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $322 +$287 +89%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $102 +$194 +190%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$69 +674%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $25 +$59 +239%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $682 −$667 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $261 −$173 -66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $225 −$220 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$52 -52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $202 +$136 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $406 +$393 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $102 −$22 -22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $31 +$127 +413%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$213 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $133 −$130 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$231 +114%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $102 +$192 +188%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $202 +$84 +41%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $144 −$140 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $144 −$140 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $101 54m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $26 57m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $203 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $296 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 43¢ $80 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 29¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $322 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $682 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 6h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $158 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $225 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $80 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $49 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.80 · official $712.80 (match) · 621 history records