Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3E 0x3e77…64d1 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$178 (-18%) realized −$249 · open +$71

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%6W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$11

7 days−$211

14 days−$211

30 days−$211

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-43.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-64.8%	-68.1%	17%	17%	-36.0%
≤30d	18	-64.8%	-68.1%	17%	17%	-36.0%
≤90d	23	-37.8%	-43.7%	26%	26%	-30.2%
all	23	-37.8%	-43.7%	26%	26%	-30.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-43.7%	26%	-30.2%
10%	-49.1%	26%	-36.9%
15%	-54.0%	26%	-43.0%
20%	-58.5%	26%	-48.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -38% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -73% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$23 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage

Net worth$268

Realized−$249

Unrealized+$71

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses6 / 17

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage56d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	81¢	$197	$268	+$71 (+36%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$123	+$76	+62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$111	+$63	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$32	−$31	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$19	−$19	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Lakers vs. Thunder	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$64	−$59	-92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$66	−$1	-2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$32	+$35	+109%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	May 06	$15	+$10	+64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	May 05	$15	−$1	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Apr 25	$10	+$13	+126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Apr 25	$10	−$1	-8%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Apr 25	$10	+$12	+123%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$200	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$123	19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$174	25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$32	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$13	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$6	6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	7¢	$5	6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$64	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	63¢	$64	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$66	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$66	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$32	7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind	BUY EVOS	53¢	$2	9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	9d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	BUY Timberwolves	23¢	$15	44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	BUY Timberwolves	23¢	$5	44d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Lakers	7¢	$5	44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	SELL Pistons	100¢	$25	44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	BUY Pistons	60¢	$15	45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	SELL Yes	25¢	$14	45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	26¢	$15	45d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$1	55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$10	55d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	BUY Trail Blazers	43¢	$15	55d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.76 · official $267.80 (match) · 46 history records