Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e78…143d
crypto · 1621 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$48 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1442 / 181
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1623 / 1621
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1623 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$40
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -3.6% -12.7% 86% 46% -13.6%
≤30d 488 -2.7% -12.0% 86% 49% -12.3%
≤90d 638 -2.6% -11.9% 87% 39% -12.1%
all 1623 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 19% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 19% -10.6%
10% -19.3% 1% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records