Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e7b…3070 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-13%) realized −$162 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%42W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$205
14 days−$205
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$214
other 18% +$15
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -18.0% -25.8% 35% 35% -25.7%
≤30d 116 -18.0% -25.8% 35% 35% -25.7%
≤90d 116 -18.0% -25.8% 35% 35% -25.7%
all 118 -17.8% -25.7% 36% 36% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 36% -25.8%
10% -32.8% 35% -32.9%
15% -39.3% 35% -39.4%
20% -45.2% 33% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses42 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)118 / 127
History coverage99d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 46¢ 44¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$10 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$16 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$27 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$29 +156%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$7 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$7 +733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$24 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$6 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 24m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $18 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.82 · official $148.88 · 292 history records