Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e7c…596c other 373 markets active 15h ago coverage 712d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,173 (-9%) realized −$10,601 · open −$572
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%114W / 220L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$6,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days−$6,187
14 days−$2,843
30 days−$2,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$12,086
tech 5% +$870
politics 5% −$1,033
economics 2% −$1,347
culture 2% +$24
sports 2% −$382
world 2% −$820
finance 0% +$759
crypto 0% −$111
weather 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -34.3% -40.5% 22% 22% -69.9%
≤30d 68 -30.7% -37.3% 25% 25% -29.1%
≤90d 70 -30.9% -37.5% 24% 24% -29.3%
all 334 -11.1% -19.5% 34% 32% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 32% -20.5%
10% -27.2% 27% -28.1%
15% -34.3% 24% -35.1%
20% -40.7% 22% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$230 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

712d coverage
Net worth$6,095
Realized−$10,601
Unrealized−$572
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses114 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions39
Markets (closed)334 / 373
History coverage712d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $621 $701 +$80 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $571 $481 −$90 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $356 $462 +$106 (+30%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 60¢ $441 $398 −$43 (-10%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $387 $371 −$16 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $350 $352 +$2 (+1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $350 $347 −$2 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 64¢ $359 $340 −$18 (-5%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 59¢ $295 $294 −$1 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 56¢ $355 $278 −$78 (-22%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 57¢ $297 $259 −$38 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $170 $235 +$65 (+38%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 42¢ $300 $212 −$88 (-29%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $155 $158 +$2 (+2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 24¢ $171 $147 −$24 (-14%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $160 $141 −$18 (-11%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $127 $123 −$4 (-3%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 22¢ $126 $120 −$6 (-5%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 58¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $26 $88 +$62 (+239%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 28¢ 28¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $98 $66 −$32 (-33%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 27¢ 28¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 7¢ $136 $42 −$95 (-69%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$21 +157%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$17 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$89 +87%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $199 +$301 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $211 −$208 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$89 +291%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 15 $186 −$6 -3%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$98 -96%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $123 −$68 -55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$83 +414%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$57 +140%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$50 -49%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$78 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$37 +123%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$172 +85%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $169 −$169 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 12 $341 −$261 -76%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 12 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Jun 12 $555 −$134 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $41 14h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 7¢ $5 15h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $0 16h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $0 16h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $14 16h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 23¢ $71 16h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $130 16h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 13¢ $19 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 18h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $72 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 56¢ $88 18h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $31 19h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $158 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $190 21h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $71 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 24h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $299 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $199 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 47h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 47h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $140 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,095.08 · official $6,095.15 (match) · 2763 history records