Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e7d…224c other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,023 (+15%) realized +$1,122 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$704
sports 9% +$233
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 39 +6.0% -4.1% 36% 36% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 36% +4.8%
10% -13.3% 36% -5.3%
15% -21.6% 36% -14.4%
20% -29.3% 33% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$155 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,122
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage110d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $105 −$105 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $205 −$199 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $703 −$703 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $259 +$780 +301%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 22 $245 −$245 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $358 +$1,196 +334%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $100 +$208 +208%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-15? Mar 17 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-12? Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-12? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-12? Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Mar 15 $521 −$432 -83%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $64 +$50 +78%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $50 +$54 +108%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $100 +$284 +284%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $90 +$123 +138%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $100 +$124 +124%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $707 +$832 +118%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $173 +$433 +250%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 10 $207 +$467 +226%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $192 +$124 +65%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $50 +$177 +355%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 06 $145 −$145 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 03 $25 −$5 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $57 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $264 66d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 6¢ $105 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 78d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 78d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 36¢ $500 78d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,040 90d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 25¢ $259 90d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 94d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 95d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 95d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 95d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 95d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,554 95d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 95d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 95d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $150 95d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $308 95d
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 95d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 95d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 95d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 95d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $146 98d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $146 98d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 98d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 98d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 98d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $64 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.35 · official $56.51 · 94 history records