Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e7e…5c20 crypto 867 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (531 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$717 (+33%) realized +$713 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%197W / 502L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day531.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$1,555
other 14% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (531 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 699 +54.2% +39.6% 28% 28% +91.5%
≤30d 699 +54.2% +39.6% 28% 28% +91.5%
≤90d 699 +54.2% +39.6% 28% 28% +91.5%
all 699 +54.2% +39.6% 28% 28% +91.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover531.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.6% 28% +91.5%
10% ← realistic here +26.2% 28% +73.2%
15% +14.0% 28% +56.5%
20% +2.8% 28% +41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +209% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$713
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses197 / 502
Open positions1
Markets (closed)699 / 867
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day531.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 699 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 16¢ 78¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+391%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $3.53 · 3500 history records