Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3e85…788b sports 913 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,028 (+9%) realized +$5,911 · open +$117
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%454W / 427L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$1,015est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$249
14 days+$2,368
30 days+$2,262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$5,404
other 2% +$94
politics 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +26.2% +14.2% 56% 32% -4.4%
≤30d 284 +13.2% +2.4% 47% 24% +0.8%
≤90d 742 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 24% -7.3%
all 881 +9.8% -0.7% 52% 30% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 30% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 25% -11.5%
15% -18.9% 21% -20.1%
20% -26.8% 18% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1,309
Realized+$5,911
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses454 / 427
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,015
Open positions27
Markets (closed)881 / 913
History coverage121d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 881 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 43¢ 50¢ $785 $906 +$121 (+15%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 87¢ 88¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 27¢ 26¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Kym vs. Kokkinakis: Match O/U 23.5 Under 49¢ $0 $20 +$19 (+4810%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $20 −$16 (-44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-20%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+105%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Jerome Kym vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 26¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+2455%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 67¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$1 (+17%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $11 $2 −$9 (-81%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Oz 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 21.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 23.5 Under $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $19 +$4 +19%
Set 2 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya Jun 16 $23 +$52 +225%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +23%
Krumich vs. Wazny: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $55 +$19 +35%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribe Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Rodriguez (-1.5) vs Ribeiro (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham 2: Completed Match: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Ratti vs. Hemery: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $0 +$5 +4827%
Lucio Ratti vs. Calvin Hemery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$62 +2448%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $18 +$7 +36%
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Gorgodze vs. Brancaccio: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $149 +$1 +0%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Modena: Completed Match: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 14 $186 +$4 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +140%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Justo vs. Ambrogi: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Justo (-1.5) vs Ambrogi (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Guido Justo vs. Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $20 −$4 -19%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 +$9 +106%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 +$8 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +108%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $61 −$6 -10%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $32 +$9 +30%
Dart vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Harriet Dart vs. Kamilla Rakhimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Dart vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dart vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $180 +$1 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Completed Match: Lehecka/Moutet vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 12 $2 +$2 +96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $97 +$11 +11%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $46 +$4 +10%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Balshaw (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Pedro Martinez vs. Felix Balshaw: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jerome Kym vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 $0 18m
Kym vs. Kokkinakis: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under $0 18m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $60 34m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $92 54m
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under $0 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 52¢ $5 1h
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under $0 1h
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under $0 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 52¢ $3 1h
Krumich vs. Wazny: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 52¢ $2 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $2 1h
Set Handicap: Jong (-1.5) vs Djere (+1.5) BUY Jong $0 1h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz SELL Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $72 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya BUY Kalinskaya 15¢ $8 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya BUY Kalinskaya 15¢ $8 2h
Set 2 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya BUY Kalinskaya 15¢ $8 2h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz SELL Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $49 2h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz SELL Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 14¢ $3 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $2 3h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $2 3h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Oz 48¢ $1 3h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 39¢ $13 3h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 42¢ $1 3h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 42¢ $4 3h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 42¢ $14 3h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz SELL Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $3 5h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz SELL Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $42 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,309.31 · official $1,314.31 (match) · 3255 history records