Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e86…0251 crypto 1738 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$307 (-8%) realized −$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%982W / 756L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$46
14 days−$70
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 68% -16.2%
≤30d 1030 -9.0% -17.7% 67% 57% -18.2%
≤90d 1738 -12.3% -20.7% 57% 47% -18.9%
all 1738 -12.3% -20.7% 57% 47% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 47% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 35% -26.7%
15% -35.2% 23% -33.8%
20% -41.5% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses982 / 756
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1738 / 1738
History coverage68d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records