Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e87…3198 other 15 markets active 3d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-25%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$21
sports 43% +$3
crypto 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -72.6% -75.2% 20% 20% -36.3%
≤90d 15 -50.0% -54.7% 33% 27% -32.9%
all 15 -50.0% -54.7% 33% 27% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 27% -32.9%
10% -59.1% 27% -39.4%
15% -63.0% 20% -45.2%
20% -66.6% 13% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage61d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $23 +$9 +37%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records