Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3E 0x3e88…df66 sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,818 (+7%) realized +$6,828 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%77W / 95L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$649
14 days−$1,145
30 days−$1,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$7
finance 36% +$3,670
world 13% +$3,442
other 8% −$920
tech 1% +$182
crypto 1% +$150
politics 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.3% -17.0% 25% 23% -29.1%
≤30d 74 +5.3% -4.7% 24% 23% -27.3%
≤90d 153 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 37% -7.9%
all 172 +13.7% +2.9% 45% 38% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 38% -3.5%
10% -7.0% 32% -12.7%
15% -15.9% 27% -21.1%
20% -24.2% 23% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$147 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,401
Realized+$6,828
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses77 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions10
Markets (closed)172 / 182
History coverage117d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $563 $534 −$29 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $260 $279 +$19 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $139 $137 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $150 $124 −$26 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $70 $90 +$20 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 25¢ 28¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $181 −$181 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $103 +$75 +73%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 22 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $72 +$81 +113%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $33 −$18 -56%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $66 +$3 +5%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$121 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $171 +$193 +113%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $71 +$21 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $376 −$3 -1%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $270 −$78 -29%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 20 $51 −$43 -85%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $58 +$104 +180%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 −$36 -35%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$11 -35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$93 +130%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$40 -65%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $150 −$140 -93%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 15 $104 −$53 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 28¢ $20 11h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $28 28h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 61¢ $19 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 37h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $103 37h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 17¢ $21 46h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 13¢ $15 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 54¢ $69 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $33 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $61 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,401.21 · official $1,401.24 (match) · 603 history records