Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3E 0x3e88…0c70 crypto 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,286 (-12%) realized −$1,279 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%61W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days−$449
14 days−$449
30 days−$955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$412
other 26% −$858
sports 10% −$109
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.0% -23.1% 32% 32% -39.4%
≤30d 195 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 22% -20.9%
≤90d 322 -13.6% -21.8% 19% 19% -25.2%
all 322 -13.6% -21.8% 19% 19% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 19% -25.2%
10% -29.3% 18% -32.3%
15% -36.2% 18% -38.9%
20% -42.4% 18% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$26 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized−$1,279
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses61 / 261
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)322 / 333
History coverage46d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 22¢ $310 $328 +$18 (+6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 3¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 4¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 241 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$69 +226%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$53 +344%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$69 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $468 −$461 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$39 +108%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $112 −$109 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $73 −$69 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $157 −$149 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $158 −$150 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 29 $184 −$175 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $211 −$200 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $158 −$150 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $58 −$54 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 28 $8 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $163 −$155 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $200 −$190 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $396 +$650 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$95 +1775%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $145 −$138 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $210 −$200 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $157 +$267 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 27 $470 −$3 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 22¢ $118 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $31 15h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $200 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $56 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $51 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $152 43h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $468 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $21 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 3d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $21 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $41 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.72 · official $722.72 (match) · 558 history records