Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3e89…89ce sports 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,642 (+12%) realized +$16,642 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$5,115per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1,383est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,317
14 days+$1,654
30 days+$14,743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15,261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 40% -0.7%
≤30d 25 +3.0% -6.9% 60% 48% +0.9%
≤90d 27 +3.4% -6.4% 59% 48% +0.5%
all 27 +3.4% -6.4% 59% 48% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 48% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 19% -9.1%
15% -23.6% 11% -17.9%
20% -31.1% 7% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$8,508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,454 vs −$727 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16,642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,383
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5,115
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $2,676 −$152 -6%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $2,239 −$443 -20%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $1,210 −$639 -53%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $121 −$118 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $12,473 +$3,009 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $935 +$166 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $1,103 −$41 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $178 +$15 +9%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $1,393 +$170 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,447 +$349 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2,884 +$330 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $9,922 −$1,738 -18%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2,439 +$423 +17%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $15,726 −$938 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $8,508 +$1,261 +15%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $21,051 −$2,968 -14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $3,222 +$3,285 +102%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $12,761 +$1,115 +9%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $4,917 +$829 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $3,713 +$1,855 +50%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $265 −$260 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $3,429 +$45 +1%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $10,954 +$9,325 +85%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 24 $2,253 +$337 +15%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $2,698 −$473 -18%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $6,177 −$233 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $3,424 +$751 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres $109 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 20¢ $293 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 15¢ $206 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 31¢ $182 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 33¢ $184 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 75¢ $389 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $306 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $293 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 19¢ $148 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $299 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $267 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies $38 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 15¢ $6 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 76¢ $12 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 51¢ $265 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $241 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $46 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $214 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 41¢ $229 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 64¢ $328 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $110 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $246 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 57¢ $3 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $100 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 50¢ $263 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $17 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 55¢ $17 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $105 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $306 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records