Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e8d…7879 other 9 markets active 1d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-17%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$66
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.1% -35.0% 44% 44% -25.6%
≤30d 9 -28.1% -35.0% 44% 44% -25.6%
≤90d 9 -28.1% -35.0% 44% 44% -25.6%
all 9 -28.1% -35.0% 44% 44% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 44% -25.6%
10% -41.2% 33% -32.7%
15% -46.9% 11% -39.2%
20% -52.1% 11% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$33 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$25 -82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 −$10 -70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 −$119 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$42 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $86 +$17 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$23 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 40h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $92 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $71 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $57 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $46 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $46 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records