Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e8e…161c sports 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%22W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$2
sports 27% −$2
politics 17% −$1
economics 9% −$1
world 9% +$1
crypto 8% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 136 +0.0% -9.5% 16% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses22 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage162d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $142 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 27 $131 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $135 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $145 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $39 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 14 $28 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 09 $48 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 09 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 5h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $41 11d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $41 12d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $34 24d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $34 24d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $32 38d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $32 41d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $37 116d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $3 118d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $3 118d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $37 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 118d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $33 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $33 118d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 118d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 118d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $39 118d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $39 118d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $40 118d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $40 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 511 history records