Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e8e…6461 sports 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$468 (-6%) realized −$489 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%217W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$49
14 days−$411
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$585
other 8% +$31
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 58% -26.3%
≤30d 160 -12.6% -21.0% 58% 46% -20.4%
≤90d 369 -8.2% -17.0% 59% 47% -16.4%
all 369 -8.2% -17.0% 59% 47% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 47% -16.4%
10% -24.9% 37% -24.4%
15% -32.2% 30% -31.7%
20% -38.8% 22% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$489
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses217 / 152
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions2
Markets (closed)369 / 371
History coverage58d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 48¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+56%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 65¢ 72¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich Jun 27 $5 +$3 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 25 $34 +$2 +5%
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Suzuna Oigawa Jun 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $27 +$18 +65%
Humbert vs. Bellucci: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Doumbia/Reymond vs Harrison/Skupski Jun 23 $8 +$2 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Claire Liu Jun 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $10 +$6 +65%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $32 −$5 -15%
Tseng vs. Heide: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $34 +$25 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $33 +$2 +6%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Aishi Das Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Adelina Lachinova Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
ITF Luque: Antonia Rivera vs Justina Gonzalez Daniele Jun 21 $38 +$12 +32%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $34 +$13 +37%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $3 +$2 +44%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $32 +$32 +97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $17 +$34 +200%
ITF Merzig: Milana Maslenkova vs Fabienne Gettwart Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan (Doubles): Blus/Sadzik vs Diez/Lopez Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
ITF Monastir: Sofia Avataneo vs Soo Ha Jang Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Lyon: Miguel Damas vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Stefan Horia Haita vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ilkley (Doubles): Bayldon/Schoolkate vs Bass/Duncan Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Chile? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $33 +$7 +23%
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $36 +$4 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $36 +$24 +66%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $33 +$19 +60%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $33 +$13 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $33 1h
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 64¢ $5 34h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy SELL Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 80¢ $36 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $34 4d
Humbert vs. Bellucci: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $33 5d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 76¢ $8 5d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 75¢ $8 5d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 75¢ $4 5d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 75¢ $4 5d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 75¢ $11 5d
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Suzuna Oigawa BUY Miho Kuramochi 90¢ $9 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Claire Liu SELL Claire Liu 100¢ $7 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Guiomar Maristany 58¢ $32 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Claire Liu BUY Claire Liu 73¢ $5 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 64¢ $36 6d
Tseng vs. Heide: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 57¢ $34 6d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $18 6d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $9 6d
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo BUY Marko Topo 60¢ $10 7d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Doumbia/Reymond vs Harrison/Skupski BUY Harrison/Skupski 77¢ $8 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 67¢ $34 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $33 7d
ITF Luque: Antonia Rivera vs Justina Gonzalez Daniele BUY Antonia Rivera 75¢ $38 7d
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe SELL Gabi Adrian Boitan 89¢ $21 8d
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe SELL Gabi Adrian Boitan 89¢ $10 8d
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe BUY Gabi Adrian Boitan 86¢ $30 8d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $5 8d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Nigeria 55¢ $46 8d
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Adelina Lachinova BUY Adelina Lachinova 55¢ $31 8d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 39¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.30 · official $82.05 · 857 history records