Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e8e…c227 crypto 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate62%71W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$75
other 20% −$2
economics 6% +$1
politics 6% +$7
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 32 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 115 -0.2% -9.7% 62% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses71 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage235d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? Jun 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? May 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 13? May 19 $79 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? May 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $79 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $79 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 10 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $79 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 6? Mar 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 01 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $79 33d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 33d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $79 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $79 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $79 54d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 54d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $79 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $79 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $79 59d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $79 59d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $79 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? SELL No 100¢ $79 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $79 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $79 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $78 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $78 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.24 · official $79.24 (match) · 257 history records