Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e90…4f89 crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%50W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$24
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$48
other 40% +$10
world 4% +$4
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -23.9% -31.2% 47% 47% -31.7%
≤30d 66 -9.1% -17.7% 52% 50% -20.9%
≤90d 103 -11.2% -19.6% 47% 46% -17.0%
all 109 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 45% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 45% -18.2%
10% -28.9% 42% -26.1%
15% -35.8% 36% -33.2%
20% -42.1% 28% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses50 / 59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage100d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$6 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 45h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.06 · official $69.06 (match) · 189 history records