Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 0 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10,604
14 days+$10,638
30 days+$10,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 40¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $8,585 +$10,706 +125%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $1,199 +$705 +59%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $7,378 −$796 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $902 +$34 +4%
Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $950 −$950 -100%
Will Trump say "Illegal immigrant" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $600 +$139 +23%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "Tesla" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "Trans" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Trump say "Civil war" during Elon interview? Aug 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $500 +$182 +36%
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? Aug 13 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Trump say "Tampon" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $500 +$96 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% +$11,399
crypto 37% −$1,261
politics 14% −$1,309
other 4% −$1,050
tech 2% −$500
world 2% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $12 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $7,314 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $509 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $509 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $509 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 64¢ $716 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $464 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $1,546 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 93¢ $759 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 89¢ $1,971 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 72¢ $317 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 72¢ $2 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 72¢ $382 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 72¢ $19 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 84¢ $227 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $44 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $494 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $30 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $50 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $2 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 63¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 60¢ $593 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 59¢ $1,165 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 75¢ $224 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 52¢ $34 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 52¢ $464 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 52¢ $13 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 52¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 52¢ $110 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 52¢ $418 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.2% +6.9% 50% 50% +46.3%
≤30d 5 +15.3% +4.3% 60% 40% +43.7%
≤90d 5 +15.3% +4.3% 60% 40% +43.7%
all 17 -43.8% -49.2% 35% 29% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.2% 29% +16.1%
10% -54.0% 24% +5.0%
15% -58.5% 18% -5.2%
20% -62.5% 12% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records