trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Knicks | 40¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $12 | −$12 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $8,585 | +$10,706 | +125% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jun 06 | $1,199 | +$705 | +59% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $7,378 | −$796 | -11% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | Jun 02 | $902 | +$34 | +4% |
| Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $950 | −$950 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Illegal immigrant" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $600 | +$139 | +23% |
| Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Tesla" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Trans" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $75 | −$75 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Civil war" during Elon interview? | Aug 14 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $500 | +$182 | +36% |
| Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? | Aug 13 | $1,050 | −$1,050 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Tampon" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $500 | +$96 | +19% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | BUY Knicks | 40¢ | $12 | 3d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 100¢ | $7,314 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 38¢ | $509 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 38¢ | $509 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 38¢ | $509 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 64¢ | $716 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 93¢ | $464 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 93¢ | $1,546 | 6d |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | SELL Knicks | 93¢ | $759 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 89¢ | $1,971 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 72¢ | $317 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 72¢ | $2 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 72¢ | $382 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 72¢ | $19 | 6d |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | SELL Knicks | 84¢ | $227 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 63¢ | $44 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 63¢ | $494 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 63¢ | $30 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 63¢ | $50 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 63¢ | $2 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 63¢ | $10 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 60¢ | $593 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 59¢ | $1,165 | 6d |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | SELL Knicks | 75¢ | $224 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 52¢ | $34 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 52¢ | $464 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 52¢ | $13 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 52¢ | $1 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 52¢ | $110 | 6d |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 52¢ | $418 | 6d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +18.2% | +6.9% | 50% | 50% | +46.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +15.3% | +4.3% | 60% | 40% | +43.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +15.3% | +4.3% | 60% | 40% | +43.7% |
| all | 17 | -43.8% | -49.2% | 35% | 29% | +16.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.2% | 29% | +16.1% |
| 10% | -54.0% | 24% | +5.0% |
| 15% | -58.5% | 18% | -5.2% |
| 20% | -62.5% | 12% | -14.5% |