Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e92…1d83
sports · 86 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$268 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$57 · open +$211
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$430
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$211
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)76 / 86
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 10 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$149
14 days−$32
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 16¢ 81¢ $37 $194 +$157 (+422%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 28¢ 49¢ $97 $168 +$71 (+73%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 Under 5.5 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $20 −$6 -30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$23 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $43 −$42 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $111 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $53 +$47 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $61 +$125 +204%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$63 +206%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$64 +313%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $41 +$30 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 26 $20 +$29 +141%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $109 +$40 +36%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $75 +$69 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $29 +$17 +57%
Thunder vs. Suns May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$539
crypto 32% −$253
other 2% −$12
tech 1% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 2h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $12 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -41.3% -46.8% 25% 21% -29.2%
≤30d 59 -23.9% -31.1% 32% 31% -3.2%
≤90d 76 -22.6% -30.0% 33% 32% -6.4%
all 76 -22.6% -30.0% 33% 32% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 32% -6.4%
10% -36.7% 32% -15.4%
15% -42.8% 32% -23.5%
20% -48.4% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.65 · official $429.65 (match) · 184 history records