Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e93…440b crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$119
other 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -22.4% -29.8% 47% 42% -28.9%
≤30d 45 -22.4% -29.8% 47% 42% -28.9%
≤90d 45 -22.4% -29.8% 47% 42% -28.9%
all 45 -22.4% -29.8% 47% 42% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 42% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 31% -35.7%
15% -42.6% 24% -41.9%
20% -48.2% 20% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$23 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +9%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$23 -55%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $59 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $13 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $57 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records