Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3E 0x3e93…eb10 sports 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,431 (-1%) realized −$1,383 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%296W / 72L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$613est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days+$205
14 days+$968
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,652
other 7% +$446
crypto 1% +$109
world 0% +$63
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 44% -7.7%
≤30d 205 +0.5% -9.1% 78% 42% -9.9%
≤90d 368 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 40% -10.6%
all 368 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 40% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 40% -10.6%
10% -17.6% 21% -19.2%
15% -25.6% 10% -27.0%
20% -32.9% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$221 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized−$1,383
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses296 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$613
Open positions4
Markets (closed)368 / 372
History coverage67d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner FOKUS 87¢ 100¢ $300 $344 +$44 (+15%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Taylor Fritz 82¢ 82¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) Eternal Fire 88¢ 50¢ $200 $112 −$88 (-44%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 23 $152 −$152 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Jun 23 $352 +$49 +14%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $303 +$128 +42%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $301 +$44 +15%
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $902 −$154 -17%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $301 +$8 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $402 +$63 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $516 −$220 -43%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $290 +$109 +38%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $651 +$19 +3%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 −$8 -2%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $300 +$13 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $351 +$30 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$27 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $35 +$10 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $502 +$60 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $262 +$12 +5%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $301 +$25 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $201 −$73 -36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $71 −$4 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$3 -2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 18 $10 +$8 +81%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $601 −$40 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $301 +$36 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $402 +$70 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $101 +$44 +44%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $301 +$22 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 −$12 -16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $501 +$26 +5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $301 +$29 +10%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $111 −$68 -61%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $188 +$12 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $75 +$21 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$103 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $159 +$39 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $303 +$138 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) BUY Eternal Fire 88¢ $201 41m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 87¢ $301 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek SELL Zhuoxuan Bai 93¢ $401 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 82¢ $201 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 81¢ $352 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Xinyu Wang 92¢ $431 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 64¢ $303 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 87¢ $301 7h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 77¢ $748 7h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 92¢ $902 8h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $309 19h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $301 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 86¢ $402 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $400 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 72¢ $290 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto $10 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 38¢ $296 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 57¢ $152 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 63¢ $506 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $669 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Daria Snigur 46¢ $28 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Daria Snigur 53¢ $3 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 97¢ $651 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $201 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $396 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 2d
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 96¢ $300 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $25 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 92¢ $351 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $201 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.47 · official $635.20 · 840 history records