Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3e97…1e35 other 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,060 (+1%) realized +$2,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%34W / 151L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,572per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$48
14 days−$82
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$169
other 41% +$200
sports 9% +$2,004
culture 2% −$30
economics 2% −$3
world 1% −$6
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +6.1% -4.0% 12% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 112 +3.5% -6.3% 8% 6% -8.9%
all 185 +4.4% -5.6% 18% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 13% -8.9%
10% -14.6% 13% -17.6%
15% -22.9% 11% -25.6%
20% -30.4% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,423) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$7 · ×13.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$2,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses34 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,572
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $172 $173 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $2,315 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $4,221 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $4,225 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $6,751 −$9 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,318 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,853 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,491 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,511 −$7 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,591 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $3,666 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,311 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $2,574 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,724 −$5 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,263 −$6 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5,162 −$7 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $74 +$23 +31%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $80 +$78 +97%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $45 +$60 +134%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,392 −$3 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,212 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $5,012 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,735 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,064 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $803 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $3,693 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $3,218 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $609 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,734 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $80 +$74 +93%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $66 +$30 +46%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $50 +$55 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $528 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $213 2h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $529 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $557 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $558 6h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $531 7h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $532 9h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $550 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $550 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $459 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $952 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $953 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $725 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $726 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $548 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $548 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,171 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,173 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,260 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,262 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,264 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,266 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,264 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,267 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,250 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.92 · official $385.92 (match) · 665 history records