Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e98…8f94 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$34
sports 24% −$19
politics 8% −$8
crypto 8% −$5
culture 6% −$6
economics 4% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $359 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $221 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $372 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $435 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $182 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $294 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $671 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $387 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $143 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $567 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $169 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $643 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $121 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 12m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 3h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 7h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 9h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 11h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 13h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 14h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 16h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 18h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 20h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 22h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $3 33h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 42h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 44h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 45h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.58 · official $50.58 (match) · 1267 history records