Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9a…f9d5 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 33% $0
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -0.4% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 34 -4.1% -13.2% 24% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage452d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $23 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 01 $12 $0 -3%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 24 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $41 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $10 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $32 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $23 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $9 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $9 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 23d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 357d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2 374d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 389d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 389d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 389d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 391d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 391d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 394d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 99¢ $11 394d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 97¢ $11 394d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 394d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records