Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3e9b…a0ec world 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$962 (-6%) realized −$563 · open −$399
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 62L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,530
7 days+$1,692
14 days+$2,324
30 days+$1,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1,247
politics 24% +$479
sports 22% +$227
other 18% +$22
finance 0% −$50
crypto 0% −$25
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +35.2% +22.3% 89% 89% +26.1%
≤30d 29 +4.8% -5.2% 55% 55% +8.5%
≤90d 83 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 36% -9.3%
all 99 -18.8% -26.5% 37% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 34% -10.8%
10% -33.6% 32% -19.3%
15% -40.0% 25% -27.1%
20% -45.9% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$102 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$563
Unrealized−$399
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage124d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 23¢ $255 $62 −$193 (-76%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 49¢ $200 $37 −$163 (-81%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%? Yes 17¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $506 +$314 +62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $806 +$247 +31%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 22 $1,012 +$228 +22%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $792 +$1,002 +126%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $387 −$387 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $308 +$79 +26%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $261 +$47 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $129 +$139 +108%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 18 $100 +$23 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $156 +$477 +306%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $271 +$253 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $55 +$84 +153%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $87 +$27 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$29 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $174 −$113 -65%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 11 $138 −$43 -31%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $135 +$39 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 05 $76 −$76 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 05 $132 −$56 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $303 −$303 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $230 +$56 +24%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $207 +$222 +108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $530 −$530 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $234 +$173 +74%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $195 −$161 -82%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 22 $34 −$16 -46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $121 −$8 -7%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $144 +$79 +55%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $666 −$650 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $109 −$109 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $40 −$7 -19%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 09 $71 +$95 +135%
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? May 07 $104 −$33 -32%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? May 01 $100 −$66 -66%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $25 −$25 -100%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $131 −$129 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $298 −$97 -32%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $100 +$14 +14%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $506 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $806 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,240 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,012 10h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $387 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $388 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $308 20h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $308 20h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $261 24h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $267 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 100¢ $267 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $123 3d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 91¢ $123 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 47¢ $129 3d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $633 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $524 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 96¢ $139 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $112 8d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 77¢ $21 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $21 8d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 76¢ $65 8d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 9d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 38¢ $55 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $171 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $156 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.37 · official $99.37 (match) · 195 history records