Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9b…545c world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$7
other 32% −$12
politics 16% $0
culture 8% +$10
sports 6% −$2
finance 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -8.9% 39% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 34 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage108d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $219 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $174 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $190 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $67 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $152 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $191 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $190 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $173 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $187 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $187 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $188 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $252 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $283 −$7 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $168 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $122 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $167 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $176 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $413 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $175 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $164 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $179 +$10 +5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $568 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $925 +$8 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,706 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $924 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $27 −$2 -9%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $916 +$10 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $31 −$4 -13%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $56 −$11 -19%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $933 −$4 -0%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 04 $83 −$4 -5%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $701 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $193 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $193 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $80 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $122 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $147 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $174 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $190 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $190 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $59 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $61 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records