Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9d…1f47 crypto 22 markets active 109d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1885 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$161,184 (+129%) realized +$161,184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$5,694per market
Trades / day1885.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$84,822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1885 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.4% -24.3% 4% 4% -97.3%
≤30d 27 -16.4% -24.3% 4% 4% -97.3%
≤90d 27 -16.4% -24.3% 4% 4% -97.3%
all 49 +2.3% -7.4% 31% 31% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1885.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 31% +7.6%
10% -16.3% 31% -2.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -12.1%
20% -31.8% 31% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -101% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$4,359) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
155.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,237 vs −$2,265 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$161,184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 22
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$5,694
Trades / day1885.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $127 −$960 -758%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$893 +590792%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $453 −$1,997 -441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $3,112 −$3,112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $9,508 −$9,508 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $618 −$618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $469 −$469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $91 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,902 −$1,902 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $707 −$707 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $2,596 −$2,225 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $423 −$423 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $1,955 −$1,955 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $2,323 −$2,696 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $3,296 −$3,052 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $1,489 −$1,489 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $614 −$614 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $8,166 −$8,166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $1,745 −$877 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $469 −$469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET Jun 29 $1,307 −$1,307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $5,461 −$5,461 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $4,340 −$4,340 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 12 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 12 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 10 $1,244 +$1,022 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 10 $1,833 +$1,500 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 10 $1,999 +$2,010 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 10 $1,091 −$1,089 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 10 $1,764 −$1,763 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 10 $17,690 +$17,649 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 10 $1,864 +$1,609 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 10 $4,359 +$3,613 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 10 $8,197 +$6,883 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 10 $9,275 +$7,307 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 10 $9,668 +$7,482 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 10 $17,428 +$14,763 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 10 $14,035 +$31,812 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 10 $2,338 +$2,221 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 10 $4,875 +$4,714 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 10 $6,448 +$5,074 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 10 $17,558 −$16,420 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 10 $3,122 −$3,092 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $20 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $20 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $6 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records