Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9f…3988 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$45 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$638per market
Trades / day88.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$767
other 26% −$102
crypto 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 50% -3.4%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 50% -3.4%
all 18 +0.6% -9.0% 72% 50% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 50% -3.4%
10% -17.7% 22% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 22% -21.1%
20% -32.9% 11% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$33 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.61 per $1 lost it wins $5.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5,858
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions9
Markets (closed)18 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$638
Trades / day88.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? No 88¢ 86¢ $2,402 $2,361 −$41 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $1,796 $1,736 −$59 (-3%)
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) United States 98¢ 99¢ $1,442 $1,458 +$16 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Türkiye 87¢ 84¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 70¢ $64 $87 +$23 (+36%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 90¢ 100¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+11%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 42¢ 52¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+24%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 37¢ $37 $19 −$18 (-49%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets New York Mets 18¢ 48¢ $4 $12 +$7 (+164%)
United States leading at halftime? No 31¢ 63¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+103%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $28 +$31 +108%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $396 +$39 +10%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $58 +$10 +16%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $77 +$50 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $85 +$13 +15%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $386 −$127 -33%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1,183 +$144 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $714 +$21 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $61 +$7 +11%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $6,339 +$493 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,788 +$85 +5%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $61 +$26 +43%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $22 +$8 +39%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY United States 98¢ $1,443 1m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 3m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $39 3m
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 6m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $69 6m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 90¢ $44 7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 7m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $4 8m
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 31¢ $3 10m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $0 11m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $75 11m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $22 11m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 11m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 11m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 11m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 91¢ $396 36m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $3 44m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $21 44m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 44¢ $4 44m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $45 52m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $1,183 52m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $1,183 52m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $23 52m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $5 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $199 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $42 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $8 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,858.43 · official $6,590.27 · 152 history records