Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3ea2…ff5d sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+5%) realized +$84 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$41
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$29
other 17% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +6.7% -3.5% 37% 37% -6.2%
≤30d 86 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 34% -7.8%
≤90d 86 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 34% -7.8%
all 86 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 34% -7.8%
10% -18.8% 34% -16.6%
15% -26.6% 34% -24.7%
20% -33.8% 33% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 57
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage15d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 20¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$33 +109%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 +$33 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $31 +$48 +158%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $71 +$34 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 +$67 +649%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $37 +$89 +242%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$35 +136%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 +$50 +142%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 +$27 +373%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$43 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 +$35 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 4h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 4¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 4¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $41 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $105 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.94 · official $88.94 (match) · 155 history records