Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ea3…cf06 crypto 13 markets active 8d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-32%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$9
other 39% −$4
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -58.8%
≤90d 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -58.8%
all 11 -66.6% -69.8% 18% 18% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.8% 18% -58.8%
10% ← realistic here -72.7% 18% -62.7%
15% -75.3% 18% -66.3%
20% -77.7% 18% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 1¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 5¢ $1 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $9 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records