Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ea4…f403 sports 105 markets active 22h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$312 (-35%) realized −$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%21W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$276
14 days−$325
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$159
other 38% −$61
politics 9% −$79
crypto 6% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -43.3% -48.7% 15% 15% -46.2%
≤30d 105 -35.5% -41.7% 20% 19% -44.6%
≤90d 105 -35.5% -41.7% 20% 19% -44.6%
all 105 -35.5% -41.7% 20% 19% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 19% -44.6%
10% -47.2% 15% -49.9%
15% -52.3% 13% -54.8%
20% -57.0% 11% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses21 / 84
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 +$18 +93%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rally? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Chris Rock attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -74%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$2 -39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +116%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -85%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -22%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 23h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 23h
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 33h
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 33h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 35h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 36h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $3 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $4 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 36h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 36h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 36h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $5 38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $4 40h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 40h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY No 1¢ $1 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $4 42h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $20 43h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 47h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 47h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records