Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3ea7…7fc0 sports 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,377 (-1%) realized −$1,754 · open +$377
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%84W / 90L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,159est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$381
7 days−$212
14 days−$661
30 days−$661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$146
other 17% −$359
world 8% −$329
politics 8% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -1.6% -11.0% 69% 5% -9.9%
≤30d 102 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 174 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 3% -10.7%
all 174 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 3% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 2% -19.3%
15% -29.8% 1% -27.1%
20% -36.7% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$672) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$34 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$5,145
Realized−$1,754
Unrealized+$377
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses84 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,159
Open positions5
Markets (closed)174 / 179
History coverage53d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 86¢ 100¢ $2,742 $3,194 +$451 (+16%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 85¢ 100¢ $819 $965 +$145 (+18%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 51¢ 50¢ $522 $512 −$10 (-2%)
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) InterActive Philippines 51¢ 38¢ $628 $474 −$154 (-25%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 29¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $273 +$6 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1,330 +$68 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $896 −$189 -21%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $896 −$196 -22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $904 −$13 -1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $507 −$10 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $515 −$8 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $644 +$14 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $280 +$14 +5%
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $8,927 +$126 +1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 17 $82 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $728 +$14 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $122 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $26 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $532 +$6 +1%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $661 +$15 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $273 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $560 +$14 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $227 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $24 −$1 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $59 −$1 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $602 +$103 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $78 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $476 +$14 +3%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $263 +$6 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $483 +$10 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $248 +$4 +2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $700 +$14 +2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $630 +$14 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $810 +$8 +1%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 15 $270 +$8 +3%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $57 −$22 -38%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $435 +$8 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $14 +$11 +77%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $672 +$14 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 15 $360 +$15 +4%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $324 −$89 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,190 +$13 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $101 +$2 +2%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,024 −$10 -0%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $644 −$12 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) SELL InterActive Philippines 48¢ $81 13m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 76¢ $92 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 72¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 85¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 84¢ $274 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 83¢ $199 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 73¢ $222 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 86¢ $215 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 86¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 87¢ $86 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $149 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 16¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 13¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 13¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 14¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 86¢ $221 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 86¢ $232 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 87¢ $208 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 15¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 15¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,145.09 · official $5,145.09 (match) · 1136 history records