Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3ead…52ad sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$226 (+14%) realized +$224 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$150
14 days+$113
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$34
weather 24% +$20
other 16% +$136
crypto 11% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +51.4% +37.0% 50% 40% +33.7%
≤30d 52 +25.5% +13.6% 56% 50% +5.3%
≤90d 52 +25.5% +13.6% 56% 50% +5.3%
all 52 +25.5% +13.6% 56% 50% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 50% +5.3%
10% +2.7% 48% -4.8%
15% -7.2% 48% -14.0%
20% -16.3% 38% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage22d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 79¢ 98¢ $218 $269 +$51 (+23%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ $50 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $208 +$91 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $23 −$14 -62%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $14 +$28 +197%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $19 +$44 +226%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$22 +425%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$26 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $43 +$17 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $21 +$14 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $24 +$13 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $3 +$8 +217%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$5 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $20 +$10 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 +$9 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 −$7 -24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $29 +$31 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$6 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$13 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$18 +75%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 06 $32 +$18 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$26 +296%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$25 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $78 14m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $20 36m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $60 47m
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 59m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $81 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $208 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $9 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $17 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $0 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $2 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $14 43h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 44h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 44h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes $4 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 97¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 44¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.14 · official $269.14 (match) · 150 history records