Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3eb1…554e crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$683 (-13%) realized −$680 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$734
world 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 29% -30.4%
≤30d 8 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 25% -30.3%
≤90d 8 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 25% -30.3%
all 78 +19.8% +8.4% 56% 42% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 42% -22.5%
10% -1.9% 35% -29.9%
15% -11.4% 28% -36.6%
20% -20.1% 23% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$40 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage171d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $212 −$114 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? May 31 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 18 $161 −$148 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 18 $206 −$144 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 18 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 18 $100 −$84 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 18 $108 +$37 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 18 $79 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 18 $122 −$41 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 18 $150 −$97 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 18 $100 +$99 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 18 $165 +$26 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 18 $161 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 18 $141 −$19 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 18 $75 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 18 $220 −$55 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 18 $50 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 18 $165 +$84 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 18 $100 −$34 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 18 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 18 $117 −$33 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 18 $167 −$94 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 18 $143 −$68 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 18 $130 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 18 $168 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 18 $156 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 18 $131 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 17 $125 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 17 $100 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $92 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $60 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $49 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $16 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $100 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records