Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3eb3…4d75 sports 945 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,917 (-2%) realized −$20,918 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%617W / 327L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,108per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$6,781est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$373
7 days−$884
14 days−$17,584
30 days−$43,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$20,707
other 0% −$365
crypto 0% −$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.5% -19.1% 55% 48% -21.4%
≤30d 267 -33.8% -40.1% 42% 35% -34.6%
≤90d 827 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 45% -12.8%
all 944 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 47% -11.4%
10% -22.6% 35% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 25% -27.6%
20% -37.0% 16% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,252) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$711 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$20,918
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses617 / 327
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$6,781
Open positions1
Markets (closed)944 / 945
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$1,108
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 944 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 70¢ 70¢ $88 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $43 −$43 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $198 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $192 −$189 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $141 −$139 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $577 +$30 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $85 +$19 +23%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $400 +$72 +18%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 20 $462 +$24 +5%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $53 +$49 +94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $345 +$67 +19%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $100 +$45 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $150 +$51 +34%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $234 +$22 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $142 +$92 +64%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $59 −$58 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$48 -97%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 16 $95 −$45 -47%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$31 +48%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$12 +41%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $166 −$165 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $73 +$93 +128%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$195 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $212 −$209 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $311 +$100 +32%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $247 +$64 +26%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $60 −$42 -70%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $99 −$13 -13%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $40 +$29 +73%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $158 +$32 +20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $211 −$208 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$132 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $430 −$426 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $357 −$350 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $265 +$437 +165%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $294 −$290 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $364 +$198 +54%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $260 −$258 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $235 +$26 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $725 −$714 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,003 −$995 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $89 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 78¢ $43 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 86¢ $198 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 54¢ $192 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 58¢ $133 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 95¢ $577 28h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 84¢ $400 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $85 30h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY Australia 95¢ $462 39h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $102 43h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $53 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $412 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $321 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $24 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 83¢ $200 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $201 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $201 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $100 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $150 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 80¢ $201 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 3d
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 91¢ $234 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $234 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $142 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $24 4d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 67¢ $59 4d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 98¢ $57 4d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 85¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.38 · official $88.38 (match) · 3500 history records