Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eb6…3c64 politics 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 63L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$9
other 29% −$5
economics 14% −$2
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 67 -1.8% -11.2% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage668d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Jan 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Kincaid be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sam LaPorta be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win the NFC South? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will FaZe Clan win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Will Christopher Miller be Trump's Defense Secretary? Nov 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is c Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 18h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 5d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 21d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 21d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $58 36d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $58 36d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 40d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 41d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 48d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 48d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 70d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 71d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $59 75d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $46 75d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $13 75d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 86d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 87d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 98d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 99d
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $59 102d
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $59 103d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 105d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 105d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 107d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $59 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records