Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eba…1bbb other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$38 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate67%32W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$24
sports 23% +$23
crypto 1% −$18
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.6% -10.0% 96% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 26 -0.6% -10.0% 96% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 31 -16.6% -24.5% 81% 0% -7.7%
all 48 -13.3% -21.5% 67% 15% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 15% -7.0%
10% -29.0% 12% -15.9%
15% -35.9% 12% -24.1%
20% -42.2% 10% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses32 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage708d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists No 94¢ 97¢ $376 $388 +$11 (+3%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $302 $307 +$5 (+2%)
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists No 95¢ 50¢ $95 $50 −$45 (-47%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? No 96¢ 98¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals Jun 25 $667 +$33 +5%
Wilson Isidor: 2+ goals Jun 25 $197 +$3 +2%
Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists Jun 24 $49 +$1 +3%
Edin Džeko: 2+ assists Jun 24 $613 +$37 +6%
Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Amar Memić: 2+ goals Jun 24 $63 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Rakotomanga vs Zhu Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Smith vs Echargui Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
James Rodríguez: 2+ goals Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Draxl vs. Bertola: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $68 +$1 +2%
Marozsan vs. Molcan: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 22 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7? Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Kings Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 07 $18 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 04 $11 +$13 +122%
2025 April hottest on record? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Feb 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Feb 23 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Feb 23 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Natus Vincere win CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final 2024? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 1? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? Sep 29 $2 +$1 +62%
Pavel Durov flees France by Sep 15? Sep 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Biden drops out before the Democratic convention? Sep 05 $1 +$4 +376%
Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will $BTC reach 70k in July? Sep 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bronny make a 3 in his next game? Sep 05 $2 +$3 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Lee Kangin: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $8 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.22 · official $771.22 (match) · 148 history records